According to CINNO Research's survey of NOR Flash manufacturers and upstream and downstream suppliers, NOR Flash industry continues to face the situation of oversupply, which is also due to the impact of demand contraction caused by the Sino-US trade war.
After ZTE sanctions, Netcom equipment export orders significantly shrank, so that the third quarter output value of NOR Flash once again showed a single-quarter decline. The overall third quarter NOR Flash output declined slightly 2% over the second quarter to 660 million US dollars.
At present, most of the leading firms with high market share aim to enter the high-capacity NOR Flash market such as industrial control, automotive electronics and Aerospace Military with high threshold, so as to gain higher operational momentum and achieve high profits; while the small factories almost choose to cut in from low-capacity products, aiming at Netcom products and price sensitivity. High consumer electronics, such a competitive situation in the industry will continue in 2019.
Wu Minqiu, chairman of Wanghong, said that due to the dramatic changes in the market and the impact of the Sino-US trade war this year, it was impossible to achieve the previous year's performance of 4:6 in the first half of the year. It is expected that the price of NOR Flash with high capacity will remain stable in the fourth quarter, and the price of the company's products will remain stable.
He also expects that the NOR Flash market will continue to grow, with products expected to maintain a certain price in the fourth quarter and next year, while the low-capacity NOR Flash market will face downward pressure in the face of fierce competition from mainland manufacturers.
Hou Mingxiao, an analyst at Lyon Securities Semiconductor Industry, believes that prices of NOR Flash and SLC NAND may decrease by 17% and 24% annually next year, based on the reverse trend of quotation.
展望后市，CINNO Research表示网通产品订单下滑趋势依旧，而功能机(Featurephone)的出货下滑，将是可能让第四季NOR Flash产值再度出现衰退的主要因素。预计第四季NOR Flash产业将较第三季滑落约2-3%，整体2018年NOR Flash产业较2017年成长11%，但2019年成长幅度将滑落至5-10%。
